Nifty PE Ratio Analysis


While examining our stocks for fundamentals the first thing we look for is its PE Ratio. Today we are going to examine the valuations of our index using PE Ratio analysis.

PE Ratio is calculated using the following formula:

Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share (EPS)

PE Ratio is simple yet powerful tool that tells us how expensive or cheap is the current underlying irrespective of the price. Let's see if our index pass that test.

For the purpose of calculation the PE Ratio of S&P CNX Nifty we need to divide the sum of market capitalization by the sum of earnings of all the companies that constitute the index. Don't worry we don't need to manually calculate the PE of Nifty every time NSE's Website has a tool which can be used to know the various ratios of market  at any point of time.

Historical analysis of Nifty's PE reveal that markets are over sold under PE of 12-13 and overbought in the range of 20-25. So, everytime Nifty's PE fell to or under 12-13 range markets have rallied nicely and everytime it moved to 20-25 range it crashed despite of what TV experts and analysts have been telling the crowd.






Now, let's examine the returns given by nifty on investment at various PE levels for different time period:


image source: http://www.stableinvestor.com/

The table above clearly shows that if we invest in the index when its trading at PE less than 12, it can provide us bumper yearly returns of 39.5%, 29% and 24.9% over next 3,5 and 7 years respectively as per historical data. While if we invest at PE of 20-24 or above our chances of low or negative returns are relatively high.

As I write this post Nifty's PE stands at 22.12 which is not too far from its 15 year peak, hence not encouraging.


Views on Nifty at Present Levels:

Nifty PE has fallen from 9119 to 7940 levels, also the long term Elliott Wave analysis  and breakdown from bullish channel suggest weak signs in the index. A correction has been due in Indian Indian markets now after the huge rally of hope in last one year. So, our view avoid fresh long term investments, especially in blue chips.

Also, one must not consider it as end of story because Indian markets have even witnessed its wildest bull run in 2007-08 from PE of 21 to 28, without any underlying change in earnings. If you are holding stocks with good fundamentals with long term perceptive you may hold and average at lower levels. Levels of 7700-7800 would be crucial for Indian markets as PE of 20 is a general buying zone in bull markets. Let's see if nifty hold those level or we are heading towards another bear market.


So, what above analysis tells us:

1) When Nifty's PE reaches levels of 12-13 start investing in the market for long term in different instalments despite of what others are telling you. If PE falls below 12 then it's a golden opportunity to get in.

2) If Nifty's PE moves above 20 then its time of caution. That doesn't means market will fall all at once but you must start booking partial gains in your long term holdings in instalments. You may consider shorting if market moves above PE of 25 or start falling from 20 PE levels after testing the 20-24 range.


Also Check: Long Term EW Analysis of Nifty


I would love to see your inputs on above analysis in comments below


Happy Trading
The Multiplier





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18 comments

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annu friend
AUTHOR
June 14, 2015 at 1:27 AM delete

Wow...never seen such kind of article or analysis....too good bro. Keep posting these knowledgeable n learnings..
Thanks a lot...gbu

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blogger
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June 14, 2015 at 6:27 AM delete

thanks your valuable information sir

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June 14, 2015 at 8:16 AM delete

keep learning keep earning....................... god bless u

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Amol
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June 14, 2015 at 9:21 AM delete

Great stuff !!!

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Anonymous
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June 14, 2015 at 1:09 PM delete

Excellent bro. You are doing a great job. Many people accumulate knowledge but few share it. After reading your articles my interest in the market is increasing. Hope to see many more articles from you in future.

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Kaushal Joshi
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June 15, 2015 at 7:28 PM delete

Does BSE show similar trend and relative returns ??

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June 16, 2015 at 6:38 PM delete

yes bro the pattern and movement of both sensex and nifty are similar.........

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June 16, 2015 at 6:39 PM delete

you welcome buddy..............

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June 16, 2015 at 6:39 PM delete

more great stuff coming hahaha

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Sunil Bhairi
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June 20, 2015 at 5:54 PM delete

Another1 gr8 knowledgeable article & learning for us. Hv changed perception towards stock market a lot optimistically since d day we are learning from U. Thax!!

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vipul singh
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July 12, 2015 at 2:40 PM delete

Simply, God Bless you 😊👍 You are Intangible asset for us 👍

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Kiran
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December 25, 2015 at 6:02 AM delete

Excellent article bro. Thanks much!

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Lalit Mehra
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January 18, 2016 at 8:36 PM delete

ABHI BHAI U ARE ALWAYS THEER WHEN WE ARE LOOSING CONFIDENCE.THANKS BROTHER.

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Unknown
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January 18, 2016 at 9:39 PM delete

U have just motivated me to stay in market....thnx a Loy lot lot....

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Amit Jha
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January 18, 2016 at 9:41 PM delete

Its only aftr reading ur article I have made my mind to make trading my profession after accumulating some capital thank u very very mch....

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yasin patel
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February 6, 2016 at 7:37 PM delete

Good one bhaii...was not knowing it..Thank you.

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Unknown
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May 15, 2016 at 7:22 PM delete

Nice Abhi BRo....you are the ultimate guru..:)

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